BCC Weekly News
Fresh Uncertainty On US Tariffs
The uncertainty over US tariffs continues to concern UK businesses. On Tuesday night, President Trump gave new indications about his plans during a speech in Congress. Here’s the take of William Bain, the BC’s Head of Trade Policy:
“Businesses have been plunged into more uncertainty around the future of tariffs on UK goods after the President’s announcements last night. The signals from the White House, last week, had suggested there had been productive discussions around trade and the risk of punitive tariffs had receded.
“But we are now staring down the barrel again. Alongside steel and aluminium tariffs of 25% next week, we are also facing similar additional charges for copper and lumber. It is still uncertain if the UK can cut a deal around the new US reciprocal tariffs, due to take effect on April 2. These would apply an effective 24% tariff on affected UK goods, if VAT is factored in.
“The President also confirmed last night that tariffs on agricultural products will be introduced at the start of April. While there is some small comfort that a dialogue between the UK Government and US Administration is underway, the level of uncertainty on the trade landscape has soared".
Click here to read the full press release.
North Sea Transition to Clean Energy is Vital
Reacting to the Government’s announcement of a consultation on the future energy potential of the North Sea, Alex Veitch, Director of Policy and Insights at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
“The North Sea has been a vital national asset for decades and will play a critical role in the UK’s future energy transition.
“The BCC is supporting the independent North Sea Transition Taskforce to examine how we can manage the switchover to guarantee the UK’s energy security and protect 200,000 jobs.
“We look forward to continuing conversations with the Government about this work. It is essential that the North Sea can attract continued investment by providing as much certainty as possible to the oil and gas sector.
“Getting this transition right is critical for so many people who work in this industry. If we deliver it at the right pace, we can ensure that the skills and capabilities of workers are successfully moved into clean energy.”
Click here to read the full press release.
BCC Economic Forecast: Growth Downgraded as Firms Struggle to Invest and Export
On Thursday, we published our latest Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF) revising down growth expectations for 2025, as firms deal with a raft of rising cost pressures. The forecast suggests business investment and exports are likely to suffer this year because of the impact of the National Insurance rise and global uncertainties. Inflation and interest rates are also expected to stay higher for longer.
Key points in the forecast:
- GDP growth in 2025 downgraded from 1.3% to 0.9%. Growth in 2026 has also been revised down marginally from 1.5% to 1.4%.
- Business investment will struggle in 2025, reaching only 0.6%, as firms face increased costs including the rise in national insurance contributions, before recovering to 1.8% in 2026.
- Exports are expected to fall by 0.5% in 2025, rising to 1% in 2026. Imports are forecast not to grow this year and grow by 0.8% in 2026.
- The inflation rate will hit 2.8% in Q4 2025, before falling closer to the Bank of England target, hitting 2.1% by the end of 2026 and 2% in 2027.
- The forecast suggests interest rates will be 4.25% at the end of 2025 and fall to 4% in 2026.
Our Head of Research, David Bharier, told journalists:
“Our downgrade to the economic outlook is reflective of the severe pressures piling up on businesses right now. UK firms are facing a double whammy of rising domestic taxation and a potential global trade war. Businesses are telling us that the rise in National Insurance and the minimum wage will increase costs, stall investment, and cause them to rethink their workforce plans.
"The specific impacts are yet to be fully seen. By April, when the changes come in, we may see more concrete action from firms. If they do start making redundancies, this could potentially reduce tax take. Rising tariffs and energy costs are also feeding into fears. “
Click here to read the full press release.